Marketing of high tech items: when does the growth cycle end?

Interesting post over on Moore's Lore, relating to technology complexity: when a new, complex technology goes from being difficult to use or to understand to being something that anyone can use and no longer interesting to talk about, its days of hot growth are over (and either it has become a mass market necessity or it never will). Examples: Windows (you may not understand it, but you can use it to do whatever it is you need) and DVD players (anyone can run one).